The International Energy Agency (IEA) has forecast that the world will require 50 more lithium mines, 60 more nickel mines, and 17 more cobalt mines by 2030 to meet the surging demand for new energy metals.
Australia’s national science agency, CSIRO, estimates more than A$5T of metals will be needed by 2050 to construct technologies for the green energy transition. Of that, over half is slated to come from critical minerals.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts a sixfold jump in demand for critical minerals over the next two decades – worth a staggering A$17.6T – as the energy transition gathers pace and the world strives for net zero emissions.
Whichever way you look at it, mining is looming as the key industry in helping the world achieve its CO2 reduction targets and the battery mineral explorers are the ones at the coal face that will be tasked with finding the critical minerals necessary.
In a recently released report, the IEA said its bottom-up assessment of energy policies in place or announced suggests that the world is currently on track for a doubling of overall mineral requirements for clean energy technologies by 2040.
“However, a concerted effort to reach the goals of the Paris Agreement (as in the Sustainable Development Scenario) would mean a quadrupling of mineral requirements for clean energy technologies by 2040. An even faster transition, to hit net-zero globally by 2050, would require up to six times more mineral inputs in 2040 than today,” the report found.
The IEA says projected mineral supply until the end of the 2020s is in line with the demand for electric vehicle (EV) batteries in the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS).
“But the supply of some minerals such as lithium would need to rise by up to one-third by 2030 to satisfy the pledges and announcements for EV batteries in the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS).
“For example, demand for lithium – the commodity with the largest projected demand-supply gap – is projected to increase sixfold to 500Kt by 2030 in the APS, requiring the equivalent of 50 new average-sized mines.”
The IEA noted that by far the longest lead times are in the extraction of raw materials.
“After an extractable resource is identified through exploration, it can take from four to more than 20 years for a mine to begin commercial production. Four to 16 years can be required for the necessary feasibility studies, and engineering and construction work.
“Long lead times are often required to secure financing and the necessary permits. Securing permits can take from one to ten years due to some countries requiring multiple permits or due to permitting delays. There is some evidence that over the decades, the time required to bring mines online has increased and this can be partially attributed to longer permitting and feasibility study lead times.
In addition to the time required to begin commercial production, mines often require around 10 years before they reach nameplate production capacity. An analysis of lead times across the supply chain indicates that with sufficient investment, downstream stages of the EV battery supply chain can ramp up to meet even rapid increases in demand in the 2030-time frame. However, upstream mineral extraction can cause major bottlenecks unless adequate investments are delivered well in advance, the report noted.
Explorers face a ‘seismic pivot’
The CSIRO says there needs to be “seismic pivot” in exploration to secure the A$5T green energy future. CSIRO is looking to partner with companies which are leveraging the critical minerals industry, as Australia moves to unlock the full economic potential seen in every part of the supply chain.
“Critical energy metals present a tremendous opportunity for us to offer unique, high value products to the rest of the world,” says CSIRO’s recent report, Critical Energy Minerals Roadmap.
“Not by simply exporting raw minerals, but by upgrading our ores to metals, chemicals, and alloys and in some cases finished products for niche markets. Without this, we will only capture a fraction of these trillion-dollar markets.”
Australia has designated 26 minerals such as lithium, cobalt, vanadium, titanium, graphite, and rare earth elements (REEs) as the critical ingredients essential to build clean energy infrastructure, technologies for aerospace and defence, as well as the EVs of the future.
The global supply of critical minerals has historically been dominated by countries with increased sovereign risk
Resource-rich Australia
The global supply of critical minerals has historically been dominated by countries with increased sovereign risk such as China, Russia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
However, the need to decouple from traditional suppliers and secure geopolitically safe and reliable sources of critical minerals has abruptly changed the focus of the Australian mining industry, according to CSIRO’s research director, Dr Sandra Occhipinti, who heads the mineral resources Discovery Program.
“We are seeing a significant shift in exploration for critical minerals which previously may have been overlooked,” Dr Occhipinti says.
“There are rich deposits here; we have very supportive geology in Australia and extensive surveys from previous exploration which will stand us in good stead.”
Rare earths elements
Dr Occhipinti said that REEs can be found in mineral sand deposits across different parts of the continent.
“They are, however, often included as tiny particles in other (fairly small) minerals, which means that we need to do a bit of science to understand how to release them and concentrate them,” Dr Occhipinti says.
“In addition, critical minerals, such as lithium, needed for making batteries for electrification are often found in coarse grained granites or pegmatites.“We are working with companies, using hyperspectral data or radiometric data collected from spaceborne systems of air to delineate areas that may contain these deposits, where we haven’t focused on looking for them before, and looking at new ways to delineate areas of higher prospectivity for a range of critical minerals through mapping indicator minerals in parts of the soil or weathered rock to map out possible footprints of these important deposits under the surface.”
CSIRO science director, Dr Louise Fisher, says that CSIRO’s cutting edge Microbeam laboratories have a long history of working with industry to provide detailed characterization and understanding of mineral samples.ies
“This includes high resolution micro-characterization and mapping, using our electron microprobes, to provide better solutions to production and analytical problems,” Dr Fisher says.
Dr Fisher added that CSIRO has developed novel methods to support in-situ measurement of critical metals, including REEs and lithium.
